2026 Week 3 · Sep 27, 2026 · Medium
Vikings at Buccaneers final drive: call the plays
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The situation
Tampa Bay Buccaneers down 4 (16–20), 3:05 left in the fourth quarter, 1st & 10 on the own 29. You are the play-caller for this Vikings at Buccaneers final drive.
- Score
- Buccaneers 16, Vikings 20
- Clock
- 3:05, Q4
- Ball
- 1st & 10, own 29
- Timeouts
- 3 left (defense 3)
- Difficulty
- Medium
- Typical win rate
- 29%
The difficulty comes from how often a typical NFL play-caller wins from this spot in our simulation. The real head coach was Todd Bowles; the defense was coached by Kevin O'Connell.
What really happened on this drive
Play the drive first: the real calls are below.
Show the real play-by-play (5 plays)
The Buccaneers turned it over. Final score: Buccaneers 16, Vikings 23, a loss for Buccaneers.
- 1st & 10 at the own 29, 3:05 · Quick out (best call)
6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-K.Gainwell ran ob at TB 42 for 13 yards (51-B.Cashman). - 1st & 10 at the own 42, 2:58 · Outside run (best call)
1-K.Gainwell right end to TB 38 for -4 yards (17-K.Van Noy). - 2nd & 14 at the own 38, 2:25 · Quick out (close)
6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 1-K.Gainwell to TB 39 for 1 yard (2-I.Rodgers; 43-A.Van Ginkel). - 3rd & 13 at the own 39, 2:00 · Quick out (costly)
6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to 2-E.Egbuka. - 4th & 13 at the own 39, 1:54 · Quick out (big mistake)
6-B.Mayfield pass short right intended for 1-K.Gainwell INTERCEPTED by 43-A.Van Ginkel [51-B.Cashman] at TB 41. 43-A.Van Ginkel to TB 41 for no gain (1-K.Gainwell). TB-6-B.Mayfield was injured during the
By our grades, Todd Bowles made the best or a near-best call (green) on 2 of 5 graded snaps and gave up 4.4 win-probability points per call on average. Plays with penalties are not graded.
How this final drive is graded
Every call you make is compared with every other call available on that snap. We play out the rest of the drive hundreds of times from your exact down, distance, field position, clock and timeouts, with results drawn from real NFL plays and a typical NFL play-caller making the later calls. The difference in win probability between your call and the best call is your grade for that snap. The final drive result, touchdown or not, does not change the grades. Read the full method.
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Call this drive