2026 Week 4 · Oct 4, 2026 · Hard
Lions at Panthers final drive: call the plays
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The situation
Detroit Lions down 6 (26–32), 2:06 left in the fourth quarter, 1st & 10 on the own 13. You are the play-caller for this Lions at Panthers final drive.
- Score
- Lions 26, Panthers 32
- Clock
- 2:06, Q4
- Ball
- 1st & 10, own 13
- Timeouts
- 0 left (defense 1)
- Difficulty
- Hard
- Typical win rate
- 11%
The difficulty comes from how often a typical NFL play-caller wins from this spot in our simulation. The real head coach was Dan Campbell; the defense was coached by Dave Canales.
What really happened on this drive
Play the drive first: the real calls are below.
Show the real play-by-play (4 plays)
The Lions turned it over on downs. Final score: Lions 26, Panthers 32, a loss for Lions.
- 1st & 10 at the own 13, 2:06 · Quick out (close)
16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to DET 16 for 3 yards (29-A.Evans). - 2nd & 7 at the own 16, 2:00 · Quick out (close)
16-J.Goff sacked at DET 10 for -6 yards (3-P.Umanmielen). - 3rd & 13 at the own 10, 1:34 · Deep sideline (best call)
16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep right to 87-S.LaPorta. - 4th & 13 at the own 10, 1:29 · Short middle (close)
16-J.Goff pass short middle to 18-I.TeSlaa to DET 22 for 12 yards (22-L.Ransom; 24-W.Lee).
By our grades, Dan Campbell made the best or a near-best call (green) on 1 of 4 graded snaps and gave up 1.7 win-probability points per call on average. Plays with penalties are not graded.
How this final drive is graded
Every call you make is compared with every other call available on that snap. We play out the rest of the drive hundreds of times from your exact down, distance, field position, clock and timeouts, with results drawn from real NFL plays and a typical NFL play-caller making the later calls. The difference in win probability between your call and the best call is your grade for that snap. The final drive result, touchdown or not, does not change the grades. Read the full method.
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